Tourism recovery? Let’s wait for spring to take a stand

The real test of the tourism recovery proclaimed at the end of the summer is now taking place.

A fragile tourism recovery at the end of the summer

Indeed, as L’Économiste said at the end of August :

Three quarters of tourist arrivals in Morocco come from Moroccans living abroad.

In reality, compared to the pre-covid period, the number of arrivals and overnight stays is still much lower, with arrivals accounting for only 70% of 2019 arrivals: 92% of 2019 MRE’s arrivals and 56% of 2019 fоrеіgn tourists’ arrivals.

These figures are difficult to interpret, given that the year is not complete: reopening of the borders at the beginning of February 2022, resumption of maritime links in mid-April. (The closure having taken place on 13 March 2020).

If tourism revenues represent 90% of 2019 revenues, this is not necessarily good news: it means that far fewer tourists spent almost as much, in other words that Morocco as a ԁеѕtіnаtіоn has become much more expensive.

Summer and winter holidays

These summer holidays were therefore boosted by the MREs, devoted to long stays, visits to the family and the experience “in the country” of the major festivals (this year, Ramadan in May, Eid at the beginning of July).

But this is not the clientele of the winter holidays. This one consists mainly of foreigners.

After the two summer months, the majority of entries are those of “real foreigners”, whose behaviour and destinations are not the same as those of the MRE.

Yet, without them, it is impossible to achieve the more than ambitious objectives of 26 million tourists by 2030.

The figures for the end of the year will therefore make it possible to know if the recovery of foreign tourism is really important, or if it has only been a catching-up effect of the MREs impatient to be rеunіtеԁ with their families.

Winter stays: different destinations and behaviour

The typical winter stay in Morocco is Agadir or Marrakesh, a weekend (generally with a bridge) or a week, the search for the sun above all, to fight the winter blues.

Rural tourism is forgotten, as is trekking in the cold mountains, as are stays in cities like Essaouira or Tangier, where the weather can be very rainy, or cultural tourism. And it’s normal… I lived in Ouarzazate for a few years, and it’s very cold as soon as the sun goes down. As Lyautey said, Morocco is a cold country where the sun is hot…

The long weekend also means forgetting the great south or even the regions of Merzouga and M’hamid, too far from Marrakech. Who wants to drive sixteen hours over a three-day weekend?

In 2022, major losses in traditional markets

In 2019, the first five client countries represented 60% of tourist arrivals. Based on provisional figures, the recovery rate of these five countries is only 46%, 11 points lower than the overall recovery rate of 57%.

In clearer terms, not only is Morocco not recovering its tourists, but it is losing proportionally even more of its traditional customers.

How to explain this decline, much more important than for other comparable tourist countries, such as Turkey?

Traditional customers hit by the crisis

It is an understatement to say that the climate is morose in Europe. France is seeing its electricity prices explode, especially for professionals, who are faced with bills four times higher in January, which they cannot pass on to their customers, and is experiencing significant inflation, without unemployment falling. Pensioners, an important customer segment, will retire later and later with pensions that do not catch up with inflation.

Germany іѕ nоt іn a better situation, far from it, and is practising an austerity policy to counteract inflation. As for England, it continues to fail to cushion the effects of the Brexit.

In short, in such a gloomy atmosphere, spending for holidays abroad is not essential, and Morocco will not replace skiing holidays in Europe where snow is increasingly absent.

Specific problems in Morocco

This has already been discussed at length, but it is necessary to recall it in order to understand what is going on.

The impact of the infrastructure and the poor quality/price ratio (fr) compared to other destinations is worrying. The crisis of the last two years has made it worse: many establishments have had to close or cut back on maintenance budgets.

Worse, they are now trying to make up for their losses with high prices. As with real estate, there is a tendency to sell at the price that is needed, not at the price that is acceptable to the customer.

To take a concrete example, for a weekend in Agadir at the Villate Limoune estate, an operator such as Voyage Privé, which offers many trips to Morocco, offers a flight included + free access to the Agadir zoo for 118 £ (1,500 dirhams) per person, while a single double room, without flight, is 2,250 dirhams on Booking and between 1,700 and 2,300 dirhams on the hotel’s website.

Many tourists express their disappointment on travel forums.

“External risks” are getting real

In 2020, I mentioned three, two of which have materialised: the impact of global warming, with an extremely hot summer, and the impact of the economic crisis, which I have just detailed and which is likely to increase. With the embargo on Russian oil and OPEC’s “lack of flexibility”, it is clear that the price of air tickets is likely to rise sharply.

And the World Cup?

We won’t deny ourselves the pleasure of seeing Morocco in the semi-finals as I write this article (and hopefully in the final…) but this event, which has been moved to the end of autumn, will further drain the “winter travel” budget. For the football fans who were able to go to Qatar to watch the games, it’s probably their entire holiday budget.

This means, simply, that between the reopening of the borders in the spring, the impacts of the war in Ukraine and football, the year 2022 will certainly not be a typical year. Nevertheless, we will be able to identify trends, and hope that 2023 will be better.

Saving the soldiers “Marrakesh” and “Agadir”, and the rest of the country

The Moroccan state has given a lot to support tourism. Subsidies to transport companies, the partial payment of salaries have been emergency measures.

A regionalised hotel investment

But this support has been limited to operating expenses, whereas, even before Covid, it was crucial to invest in hotel capacity. For the moment, no nаtіоnаl programme is planned.

Large investment programmes are planned at the regional level, in the Sous-Massa regions, in particular around Agadir, and Marrakesh which wants to create 35,000 additional beds.

Elsewhere, the few announcements of the opening of top-of-the-range hotels should not mask the reality: already poor regions (such as the province of Ouarzazate), which suffer from the lack of direct services, do not have the means to invest in the same way and risk falling into a vicious circle, lack of supply, lack of customers, lack of means, lack of investment… and lack of supply.

Is tourism still a priority for the Moroccan state?

Let’s be honest, іt ѕееmѕ nоt.

Today, we talk first of all about green energy, food sovereignty and sustainable agriculture. Of course, there is this plan of 26 million tourists for 2030 which I would describe as “Inch Allah”, as long as the necessary investments are not made.

Living and working in tourism in Morocco?

For your professional project, it all depends on whether you need to invest or not.

Qualified professionals are regularly sought, particularly for sales, management of establishments and catering. I insist on the word “qualified”.

Beware of leases and contracts that are not legally sound, of the absence of an employment contract or of contracts for the provision of services, particularly as a self-employed person. But there is demand, especially if you are fluent in English or other languages less common in Morocco (German, Chinese, etc).

Investing requires a lot of caution. Prices have started to fall, but I believe that this is not over yet. Even more than before, your investment must be planned for the medium/long term.

In the long term, pay attention to everything that revolves around “collapsology“. especially if you are out of town. I’ve seen ads for “collapsology ready” properties for sale in Europe…

Water is the critical element.

So is the evolution of temperatures.

If you are by the sea, find out what projections exist, next to the cliffs of Safi, there are places like the coast of El Jadida, where the “sea shore” is almost below sea level…

Selling shovels rather than digging for gold

Finally, your skills can be put to more profitable use. Buying a house where you can live comfortably without needing to rent it out to tourists and, next door, setting up a professional school dedicated to tourism and hospitality is a good idea. And there you can benefit from state aids.

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